"Prepared for the United States Air Force." Includes bibliographical references (pages 123-126).
Contents:
References. Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 8. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Selected Previous Studies: Studies of Military Pilot Retention -- A Forecast Pilot Shortage -- Chapter 3. Sources of Pilot Supply: Civilian Flight Schools -- ATP Certificate Holders Not Working for an Airline -- Furloughed Pilots -- Small Airlines -- Military Pilots -- Civilian Airlines' Seniority System -- Chapter 4. Pilot Pay: Average Annual Salary of Pilots and Co-Pilots -- 2014 Pay Schedules at Major Airlines -- A Projected Increase in Pilot Hourly Pay -- Annual Earnings of Veterans Working as Pilots and Non-Pilots -- An Expression for the Expected Present Discounted Value of Civilian Earnings -- Chapter 5. Evidence Related to the Demand for Pilots: Trends in Airline Activity: Passenger and Cargo -- Regression Models of Passenger and Cargo Miles -- Forecasts of Passenger and Cargo Miles -- Bankruptcies -- The Coming Wave of Civilian Pilot Retirements -- Pilot Attrition -- Closing Comment -- Chapter 6. Dynamic Retention Model Overview, Estimates, and Model Fits: Special and Incentive Pays for Rated Personnel -- Dynamic Retention Model Overview -- Estimating the Model -- Parameter Estimates and Model Fit -- Chapter 7. Simulations Results: Retention Effects of Increases in Expected Civilian Pilot Opportunities -- Using Aviator Retention Pay to Offset Negative Retention Effects of Increases in Expected Civilian Pilot Opportunities -- Eliminating Aviator Pay for Non-Flying Assignments -- Summary -- Chapter 8. Concluding Thoughts -- APPENDIXES -- References.
Summary:
"An increase in pilot hiring at major commercial airlines could increase the outflow of U.S. Air Force rated officers and create manning shortfalls. In addition, because aviator pay (AP) and aviator retention pay (ARP) are now discretionary programs under Department of Defense Instruction 7730.67 and budget requests for them must be defended, the Air Force requires a capability to help anticipate the range of possible changes in civilian pilot pay and hiring and estimate the level of AP or ARP needed as a countermeasure. The authors provide data and analysis of airline pilot supply, compensation, and demand and conclude that major airlines are increasing both pilot pay and hiring, which could decrease Air Force pilot retention. They extended RAND's dynamic retention model to include the choice of ARP contract length and airline hiring. They estimated the model using longitudinal data on Air Force pilot retention for 1990 through 2000 entry cohorts followed to 2012 and incorporated new estimates of the civilian age-earnings profile of ex-military pilots employed by major airlines. With the estimated model, they simulated the effect on pilot retention of increases in civilian pay and airline hiring, as well as the elimination of AP for pilots assigned to non-flying positions. The authors found the levels of AP and ARP needed to offset those effects and sustain Air Force pilot retention. The findings vary by case, but a range of foreseeable increases in major airline hiring and pay would require increases in ARP to at least $38,500 and potentially as high as $62,500, well beyond the current cap of $25,000 per year"--Publisher's description.
This resource is supported by the Institute of Museum and Library Services under the provisions of the Library Services and Technology Act as administered by State Library of Iowa.