U.S. Dept. of CommerceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory,
Copyright Date:
2004
Description:
60 p. : digital, PDF file.
Reproduction Info:
Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, Mich.? : U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory], System requirements: PDF reader. System requirements: PDF reader.
Title from title screen (viewed on Apr. 17, 2008). "December 2004."
Summary:
"Executive summary: To maximize the benefits of our ecosystems, to sustain these benefits into the future and to restore the benefits of impaired systems, decision-makers increasingly rely on understanding of long and short-term changes in ecosystem structure and function. Science today is challenged to play an increasing role in providing forecasts of such changes at temporal and spatial scales appropriate to these decision-making processes and sufficient to support proactive ecosystem management. Ecosystems are influenced by physical, chemical, biological and anthropogenic processes causing complex changes in system structure and function. Predicting these changes -- and particularly the effect of these changes on human end-users -- in a form that makes the predictions useful to decision makers is the heart of the ecological forecasting concept. This preliminary needs assessment is largely the result of a workshop held at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in August of 2003. Workshop participants were challenged to think broadly about the needs of the coastal constituencies whom they represent and with whom they interact on a regular basis that could be served by ecological forecasting. Workshop participants engaged in several levels of prioritization exercises leading to a preliminary recommendation as to areas in which Great Lakes research should focus in developing ecological forecasting capacity. Overwhelmingly, the recommendations of workshop participants focus on forecasts for the nearshore zone. This is perhaps not surprising as the majority of human interactions with the Great Lakes system occur near their edges. The complex nature of the nearshore zone of the Great Lakes together with the lack of solid research-based information about fine-scale processes occurring in this zone does, however, represent a significant challenge to the Great Lakes research community. The majority of well defined forecasting needs also indicate that the most useful forecasts need to be based on refined geographic scale models which allow applicability of the forecasts to decisions made at the local level. The need to localize forecasts represents a significant challenge that must be met at both the research and outreach levels. Significant clusters of overlapping constituent/issue combinations were readily apparent from the prioritization exercises. This report recommends that these areas be given priority in developing detailed needs assessment and in development of ecological forecasts. [1] Fisheries constituents need for ecological forecasts relating to fish stock assessments, [2] Water quality regulators, water dependent industry and utility, recreational users, coastal property owners, and land use planners need for ecological forecasts relating to water quantity and quality (including sediments), [3] A targeted need among transportation sectors (shipping, boating and marinas) for forecasts relating to sediment management, [4] A broad need by most user groups for ecological forecasts relating to weather (offshore and nearshore), [5] A broadly scattered need among a variety of user groups for forecasts relating to aquatic nuisance species, particularly for forecasts of abundances, [6] A broadly scattered need among a variety of user groups for forecasts relating to socioeconomic factors."--P. 5.
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