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06239aam a22005898i 4500 001 B2299B74491811E8A2116E4897128E48 003 SILO 005 20180426011139 008 170719s2017 mdu b 001 0 eng 010 $a 2017009943 020 $a 1421424134 020 $a 9781421424132 040 $a DLC $b eng $e rda $c DLC $d OCLCF $d OCLCO $d OCLCQ $d SILO 042 $a pcc 043 $a n-us--- 050 00 $a LA227.4 $b .G736 2017 082 00 $a 378.00973 $2 23 084 $a EDU034000 $a BUS069000 $a SOC006000 $a EDU034000 $2 bisacsh 100 1 $a Grawe, Nathan D., $e author. 245 10 $a Demographics and the demand for higher education / $c Nathan D. Grawe. 264 1 $a Baltimore : $b Johns Hopkins University Press, $c 2017. 300 $a pages cm 520 $a "Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest--traditional higher education strongholds--expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges"-- $c Provided by publisher. 520 $a "The economics of American higher education are driven by one key factor--the availability of students willing to pay tuition--and many related factors that determine what schools they attend. By digging into the data, economist Nathan Grawe has created probability models for predicting college attendance. What he sees are alarming events on the horizon that every college and university needs to understand. Overall, he spots demographic patterns that are tilting the US population toward the Hispanic southwest. Moreover, since 2007, fertility rates have fallen by 12 percent. Higher education analysts recognize the destabilizing potential of these trends. However, existing work fails to adjust headcounts for college attendance probabilities and makes no systematic attempt to distinguish demand by institution type. This book analyzes demand forecasts by institution type and rank, disaggregating by demographic groups. Its findings often contradict the dominant narrative: while many schools face painful contractions, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by 15+ percent. Geographic and racial profiles will shift only slightly--and attendance by Asians, not Hispanics, will grow most. Grawe also use the model to consider possible changes in institutional recruitment strategies and government policies. These "what if" analyses show that even aggressive innovation is unlikely to overcome trends toward larger gaps across racial, family income, and parent education groups. Aimed at administrators and trustees with responsibility for decisions ranging from admissions to student support to tenure practices to facilities construction, this book offers data to inform decision-making--decisions that will determine institutional success in meeting demographic challenges"-- $c Provided by publisher. 504 $a Includes bibliographical references and index. 500 $a Machine generated contents note: AcknowledgmentsIntroduction 1. Demographic Headwinds for Higher Education 2. Demographics as Destiny? 3. The Higher Education Demand Index 4. Changing Contours of Population and Aggregate Higher Education Demand 5. Demand for Two-Year Programs 6. Demand for Four-Year Institutions 7. Is Anyone Paying for All of This? 8. Coping with Change 9. Anticipated Higher Education Attendance 10. The Potential for Policy to Affect Attendance Rates 11. Looking beyond 2030 Methodological Appendix Notes References Index. 650 0 $a Education, Higher $z United States $x Forecasting. 650 0 $a Education, Higher $x Economic aspects $z United States. 650 0 $a Education $x Demographic aspects $z United States. 650 0 $a Universities and colleges $z United States $x Administration. 650 0 $a Population geography $z United States. 651 0 $a United States $x Population. 650 7 $a EDUCATION $x Higher. $2 bisacsh 650 7 $a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS $x General. $x General. $2 bisacsh 650 7 $a SOCIAL SCIENCE $x Demography. $2 bisacsh 650 7 $a EDUCATION $x General. $x General. $2 bisacsh 650 7 $a Education $x Demographic aspects. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00902595 650 7 $a Education, Higher $x Economic aspects. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00903047 650 7 $a Education, Higher $x Forecasting. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00903065 650 7 $a Population. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01071476 650 7 $a Population geography. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01071591 650 7 $a Universities and colleges $x Administration. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01161604 651 7 $a United States. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01204155 941 $a 6 952 $l PLAX964 $d 20230718093047.0 952 $l UPAX334 $d 20230104042455.0 952 $l OVUX522 $d 20220317021201.0 952 $l N2AX314 $d 20210728021400.0 952 $l HWAX074 $d 20180926012749.0 952 $l UQAX771 $d 20180426011452.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=B2299B74491811E8A2116E4897128E48 994 $a C0 $b JIDInitiate Another SILO Locator Search