1. Indonesia in the Context of U.S.-China Competition -- 2. Indonesia's Geostrategic Importance, Institutional Outlook, and Desire for Nonalignment in Diplomatic and Political Relations -- 3. Indonesia's Economic Relationship with China, and Country-by-Country Relationship Sketches -- 4. Assessment and Outlook -- 5. Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force -- Appendix A. Detailed Framework Variable Coding -- Appendix B. Overview of Indonesia's Military -- Appendix C. Indonesia's Security Policymaking -- Appendix D. Politics, Public Opinion, Other Sources of Influence, and Outlook.
Summary:
The U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the importance of working with regional allies and partners in order to manage China's rise as a strategic competitor to the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. In this country-level report in a series, the author examines the potential for, and potential impediments to, partnering more closely with Indonesia. In many ways, Indonesia is a natural partner: Its self-defined core national security interests, including the preservation of its sovereignty against encroachment by any would-be hegemonic regional power, are in relatively close harmony with those of the United States. But U.S. planners must be keenly aware of the constraints on Indonesia's willingness and capacity to forge a partnership based on strategic competition with China. These constraints include persistent aversion to any partnership that might be characterized as "alignment"; enduring antiforeign attitudes, particularly in military circles; strong desire to balance security engagement among the widest possible array of nations; deep and growing economic linkages with China; an institutional mindset for the military that is geared more toward internal stability than external defense; historical and ongoing underfunding of basic military needs; and a lack of military capability and interoperability sufficient for frictionless interaction with U.S. forces. Although Indonesia will remain an important U.S. partner, such challenges should moderate expectations about the pace for increased engagement
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