A cross-cutting analytic method: exploratory analysis -- The concept -- Making exploratory analysis feasible and convergent -- Start with a broad view -- Narrow the analysis for the study at hand -- Use multiresolution modeling -- Narrow to a test set of scenarios -- Use computational experiments for scenario discovery -- Strategic planning -- Uncertainty-sensitive strategic planning -- Planning specific adaptations -- Capabilities-based planning and portfolio analysis -- System thinking in strategic planning for complex adaptive systems -- Border control for drug smuggling -- Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency -- Strategic forecasting and expert elicitation -- Acquisition management -- Deciding on whether to arrange for competition -- Reducing risk by taking risk -- Reducing uncertainty by researching the facts -- Scientific cost estimation -- Logistics -- Background -- RAND's 1980's uncertainty project -- Recent developments -- Manpower -- Crisis decisionmaking -- Issues of organization and implementation -- Organizing to cope -- Anticipating organizational behavior undercutting intentions -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: the more general literature.
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