Introduction : Breaking the first law of intelligence failure -- Why does intelligence fail, and how can it succeed? -- The problem of conventional surprise attack -- Pearl Harbor : challenging the conventional wisdom -- The Battle of Midway : explaining intelligence success -- Testing the argument : classic cases of surprise attack -- The problem of terrorist surprise attack -- The East African embassy bombings : disaster despite warning -- New York City : preventing a day of terror -- The 9/11 attacks : a new explanation -- Testing the argument : why do terrorist plots fail? -- Conclusion : Preventing surprise attacks today -- Appendix : Unsuccessful plots and attacks against American targets, 1987-2012.
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