Many have come across the Monte Carlo fallacy, so-called after the casino's roulette wheel ball fell on black 26th times in a row, costing players, who believed that the law of averages made such streaks impossible, millions of dollars. However, the casino also lends its name to a tool of statistical forecasting, the Monte Carlo simulation, used to model the probability of uncertain outcomes that cannot be easily predicted from mathematical equations. This book provides a detailed account for how aspiring bettors can use a Monte Carlo simulation to improve the quality, and hopefully profitability, of their betting, and in doing so unravels the mystery of probability and variance that lies at the heart of all gambling.
This resource is supported by the Institute of Museum and Library Services under the provisions of the Library Services and Technology Act as administered by State Library of Iowa.