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02087aam a2200433 i 4500 001 58DFA4CC875711E9A56C064497128E48 003 SILO 005 20190605010028 008 181114s2019 nyua b 001 0 eng 010 $a 2018043558 020 $a 0190938021 020 $a 9780190938024 035 $a (OCoLC)1073034232 040 $a DLC $b eng $e rda $c DLC $d OCLCO $d BDX $d YDX $d OCLCF $d YDX $d SILO 042 $a pcc 043 $a n-us--- 050 00 $a JZ1253 $b .F75 2019 082 00 $a 327.101/9 $2 23 100 1 $a Friedman, Jeffrey A. $q (Jeffrey Allan), $e author. 245 10 $a War and chance : $b assessing uncertainty in international politics / $c Jeffrey A. Friedman. 264 1 $a New York, NY : $b Oxford University Press, $c 2019. 300 $a x, 228 pages ; $c 25 cm. 490 1 $a Bridging the gap 504 $a Includes bibliographical references and index. 505 0 $a Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research. 650 0 $a International relations $x Decision making. 650 0 $a National security $x Decision making. 650 0 $a Uncertainty $x Political aspects. 651 0 $a United States $x Decision making. $x Decision making. 651 0 $a United States $x Decision making. $x Decision making. 650 0 $a Uncertainty $x Political aspects $z United States. 650 7 $a International relations $x Decision making. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00977062 650 7 $a National security $x Decision making. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01033717 651 7 $a United States. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01204155 830 0 $a Bridging the gap (Oxford University Press) 941 $a 1 952 $l USUX851 $d 20190806075206.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=58DFA4CC875711E9A56C064497128E48 994 $a 92 $b IWAInitiate Another SILO Locator Search