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05311aam a22005178i 4500 001 14F27B3C253111EE91433F782CECA4DB 003 SILO 005 20230718010455 008 230221s2023 nyu b 001 0 eng 010 $a 2022044451 020 $a 0593490509 020 $a 9780593490501 035 $a (OCoLC)1346153336 040 $a DLC $b eng $e rda $c DLC $d BDX $d OCLCF $d FMG $d IMT $d VP@ $d JTH $d SILO 042 $a pcc 043 $a n-us--- 050 00 $a JK1726 $b .T87 2023 082 00 $a 320.01/10973 $2 23/eng/20230307 100 1 $a Turchin, Peter, $d 1957- $e author. 245 10 $a End times : $b elites, counter-elites, and the path of political disintegration / $c Peter Turchin. 263 $a 2306 264 1 $a New York : $b Penguin Press, $c 2023. 300 $a xv, 352 pages ; $c 25 cm 520 $a "From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the ground-breaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a brilliant big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames. Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age by any measure, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for over a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, Nature magazine asked Turchin, along with other leading scientists, to provide a ten-year forecast. Based on his models, Turchin predicted that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order ca 2020. As the years passed, and his prediction proved accurate in more and more respects, attention around his work grew. End Times distills his framework, its empirical justification, and its highly relevant findings, into an accessible, thought-provoking book that puts the American story into broad historical context. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: when the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. Before the industrial era, the imbalance between labor and capital, signaled by rising economic inequality, was usually caused by excessive population growth. For the past 250 or so years, it has been laissez-faire government, technological innovation, globalization, and immigration that have tended to disrupt the balance. Whatever the cause, when income inequality surges, the common people suffer, and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites. This vicious cycle is the "wealth pump"--the mechanism that causes both the relative impoverishment of most people and the increasingly desperate competition among elites. And since the number of positions of real social power remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. History shows that when the elite is riven by too many claimants, when counter-elites are powerful enough to lead effective populist uprisings, then the death knell of the established order is nigh. In America, End Times has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. Time will tell whether Peter Turchin's warning is heeded"-- $c Provided by publisher. 504 $a Includes bibliographical references (pages 303-337) and index. 505 0 $a Part I. The cliodynamics of power. Elites, elite overproduction, and the road to crisis -- Stepping back : lessons of history -- Part II. The drivers of instability. "The peasants are revolting" -- The revolutionary troops -- The ruling class -- Why is is America a plutocracy? -- Part III. Crisis and aftermath. State breakdown -- Histories of the near future -- The wealth pump and the future of democracy -- Appendix. A new science of history -- A historical macroscope -- The structural dynamic approach. 650 0 $a Political stability $z United States. 650 0 $a Elite (Social sciences) $x Political activity $z United States. 651 0 $a United States $x Politics and government. 651 0 $a United States $x History. 650 0 $a Interdisciplinary approach in education. 650 7 $a Elite (Social sciences) $x Political activity. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00908119 650 7 $a Interdisciplinary approach in education. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst00976122 650 7 $a Political stability. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01069883 650 7 $a Politics and government. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01919741 651 7 $a United States. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01204155 655 7 $a History. $2 fast $0 (OCoLC)fst01411628 776 08 $i Online version: $a Turchin, Peter, 1957- $t End times $d New York : Penguin Press, 2023 $z 9780593490518 $w (DLC) 2022044452 941 $a 6 952 $l TDPH826 $d 20240702011933.0 952 $l OVUX522 $d 20231117011638.0 952 $l XXPH787 $d 20231104011817.0 952 $l CAPH522 $d 20230906010123.0 952 $l GDPF771 $d 20230802012833.0 952 $l GBPF771 $d 20230802012521.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=14F27B3C253111EE91433F782CECA4DBInitiate Another SILO Locator Search