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02281aam a2200373 i 4500 001 CF04EBC8F63611EE80258AC022ECA4DB 003 SILO 005 20240409010228 008 240402s2024 nyua e b 001 0 eng d 020 $a 0316438103 020 $a 9780316438100 035 $a (OCoLC)1428461734 040 $a VLC $c VLC $b eng $e rda $d LE# $d OQX $d UOK $d OCLCO $d JIU $d SILO 100 1 $a Perlmutter, Saul. 245 10 $a Third millennium thinking : $b creating sense in a world of nonsense / $c Saul Perlmutter, John Campbell, Robert MacCoun. 250 $a First edition. 264 1 $a New York : $b Little, Brown Spark, $c 2024. 300 $a viii, 305 pages : $b illustrations ; $c 25 cm 520 $a A Nobel prize-winning physicist, a social psychologist and a philosopher on how science can help us navigate information overload, thrive amidst uncertainty and heal our fractured society. 505 0 $a Introduction -- Part I: Getting a grip on reality. Decisions, decisions, decisions ; Instruments and reality ; Making things happen -- Part II: Understanding and uncertainty. A radical shift to probablistic thinking ; Overconfidence and humility ; Finding signal in noise ; Seeing things that aren't there ; Pick your poison: Two kinds of error ; Statistical and systematic uncertainty -- Part III: The radical can-do stance. Scientific optimism ; Orders of understanding and Fermi problems -- Part IV: Minding the gaps. Why it's hard to learn from experience ; Science gone wrong ; Confirmation bias and blind analysis -- Part V: Joining forces. The wisdom and madness of crowds ; Weaving facts and values ; The deliberation challege ; Rebooting trust for a new millennium. 504 $a Includes bibliographical references (pages 285-298) and index. 650 0 $a Cognitive psychology. 650 0 $a Thought and thinking. 650 0 $a Social psychology. 650 0 $a Decision making. 700 1 $a Campbell, John, $d 1956 November 2- $e author. 700 1 $a MacCoun, Robert J., $e author. 941 $a 4 952 $l VEPB334 $d 20240529010625.0 952 $l UQAX771 $d 20240529010156.0 952 $l TCPG826 $d 20240502010430.0 952 $l GDPF771 $d 20240409013006.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=CF04EBC8F63611EE80258AC022ECA4DB 994 $a C0 $b JIUInitiate Another SILO Locator Search