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02784aam a2200313 i 4500 001 9DE5BA92E3CB11ECB2E80CFF26ECA4DB 003 SILO 005 20220604010019 008 210226s2021 nyua b 001 0 eng 010 $a 2021004250 020 $a 0231199945 020 $a 9780231199940 040 $d SILO 100 1 $a Clayton, Aubrey, $e author. 245 10 $a Bernoulli's fallacy : $b statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / $c Aubrey Clayton. 264 1 $a New York : $b Columbia University Press, $c 2021. 300 $a xviii, 347 pages : $b illustrations ; $c 25 cm 504 $a Includes bibliographical references (pages 305-334) and index. 520 $a "There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, thissame deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history ofhow statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frameour understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacyexplains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"-- $c Provided by publisher. 600 10 $a Bernoulli, Jakob, $d 1654-1705 $x Influence. 650 0 $a Probabilities $x Philosophy $y 19th century. 650 0 $a Probabilities $x Philosophy $y 20th century. 650 0 $a Mathematical statistics $x Philosophy. 650 0 $a Binomial distribution. 650 0 $a Law of large numbers. 941 $a 2 952 $l PQAX094 $d 20231214053528.0 952 $l CBPF522 $d 20220604010053.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=9DE5BA92E3CB11ECB2E80CFF26ECA4DBInitiate Another SILO Locator Search