Why do we need forecasts? -- How do we make forecasts? -- Where are we before we forecast? -- How do we judge forecasts? -- How uncertain are our forecasts? -- Are some real world events unpredictable? -- Why do systematic forecast failures occur? -- Can we avoid systematic forecast failures? -- How do we automatically detect breaks? -- Can we forecast breaks before they hit? -- Can we improve forecasts during breaks? -- Would more information be useful? -- Can econometrics improve forecasting? -- Can you trust economic forecasts?
Summary:
Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. For students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
This resource is supported by the Institute of Museum and Library Services under the provisions of the Library Services and Technology Act as administered by State Library of Iowa.