North Korean Decisionmaking : Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use / John V. Parachini, Scott W. Harold, Gian Gentile, Derek Grossman, Leah Heejin Kim, Logan Ma, Michael J. Mazarr, Linda Robinson.
"RAND National Defense Research Institute." "Prepared for the National Intelligence Council." Includes bibliographical references (pages 93-103).
Contents:
Introduction -- Prospects That North Korea Will Engage in Market Reform -- Conventional Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula: Two Scenarios for Analysis -- North Korea Nuclear Doctrine -- Conclusions.
Summary:
This report is a compilation of three papers designed to stimulate discussion among those who are focused on North Korean decisionmaking. The first paper describes the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes-China, Vietnam, and Cuba-and provides a forecast of why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model. The second paper describes decisions that the North Korean leadership might face in two scenarios in which conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula breaks down. The final paper provides an assessment of North Korean leadership decisionmaking about nuclear weapons doctrine. Despite the many unknowns surrounding the North Korean leadership decisionmaking process, these papers constructively outline the parameters of the North Korean decisionmaking "trade space" and the historical examples from which North Korean leaders might draw.
This resource is supported by the Institute of Museum and Library Services under the provisions of the Library Services and Technology Act as administered by State Library of Iowa.