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03142aam a2200361 a 4500 001 9B070D329B6211E2989A5ACADAD10320 003 SILO 005 20130402015604 008 130306s2013 caua b 000 0 eng 020 $a 0833078003 020 $a 9780833078001 035 $a (OCoLC)829119011 040 $a SYB $c SYB $d OUN $d YDXCP $d BTCTA $d NUI $d SILO 100 1 $a Perry, Walt L. 245 10 $a Predicting suicide attacks : $b integrating spatial, temporal, and social features of terrorist attack targets / $c Walter L. Perry, Claude Berrebi, Ryan Andrew Brown, John Hollywood, Amber Jaycocks, Parisa Roshan, Thomas Sullivan, Lisa Miyashiro. 260 $a Santa Monica, CA : $b RAND Corporation, $c 2013. 300 $a xxv, 85 pages : $b illustrations (some color) ; $c 23 cm. 490 1 $a Rand Corporation monograph series ; $v MG-1246-NRL 500 $a "RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center." 500 $a "Sponsored by the Naval Research Laboratory." 504 $a Includes bibliographical references (pages 83-85). 505 0 $a Introduction and overview -- Quantitative data and methods -- Qualitative analysis -- Conclusions and recommendations. 520 $a The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) set out to develop ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks. While the ultimate goal is to create a list of areas at risk for the U.S. environment, the first phase of development employed a data set from Israel. Initially, NRL focused on spatial attributes, creating its own risk index, but realized that this focus on the where ignored the broader social context, the why. The lab asked RAND to test, as a proof of principle, the ability of sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors to enhance the predictive ability of NRL's methodology. Again using Israel as a sample, RAND created a database that coded for these factors, then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analyses with an eye to determining what puts a given area at greater risk. The quantitative analysis established that these factors are related to the odds of attack within specific neighborhoods and that the relationships held even when controlling for geospatial factors, so they seem to confer risk for reasons beyond their association with geospatial features of neighborhoods. The specifics of the research are limited to the preferences of Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel; however, the methods used to assess target preferences in Israel could be transferred to the United States or other countries. Any results, if proven to be robust, could be used to develop recommendations for heightened public awareness in certain areas. 650 0 $a Suicide bombings $x Forecasting. 650 0 $a Suicide bombings $x Research. 710 2 $a RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center. 710 2 $a Naval Research Laboratory (U.S.) 710 2 $a Rand Corporation. 830 0 $a Rand Corporation monograph series ; $v MG-1246-NRL. 941 $a 2 952 $l OVUX522 $d 20171220051050.0 952 $l USUX851 $d 20160826072557.0 956 $a http://locator.silo.lib.ia.us/search.cgi?index_0=id&term_0=9B070D329B6211E2989A5ACADAD10320Initiate Another SILO Locator Search